News
It’s Time to Talk About a Potential Recession in 2025
There have been growing policy headwinds for the U.S. and global economies in 2025, headlined by the Liberation Day tariff announcements a few weeks ago. While reciprocal tariffs have been temporarily suspended for most countries, the tariff rate currently in place on China is high enough to more than offset the benefits of suspensions elsewhere.
Quarterly Client Letter – Q2 2025
After driving double-digit stock returns for five of the past six years, the stock prices of the world’s largest companies underperformed last quarter. In this letter we will focus on the extent to which recent announcements are impacting our longer-term views on investing.
Diversification Benefits Are Reasserting Themselves During this U.S. Equity Sell-off
Since mid-February, investors have been inundated with fear-inducing headlines around tariffs, recessions, and bear markets. While these headlines have been primarily focused on U.S. equities, we believe they are obscuring the re-emergence of a market dynamic that is helping mitigate that sharp pullback for investors: diversification is working again.
Handling the Emotions of Uncertainty
Technology has revolutionized our access to information. Three hundred years ago, news spread only as fast as the wind could push ships. One hundred fifty years ago, news traveled at the speed of the telegraph wire and the Pony Express. One hundred years ago, radio was all the rage. Seventy years ago, the television took the center stage. Today, cable news and the internet give us instantaneous access to information that is often presented in a way customized to our previous personal beliefs.
Tariffs – Navigating Short-Term Volatility with a Long-Term Plan
A little over a month has passed since President Trump took office, and while uncertainty remains around his policy agenda, his initial focus appears to be on redefining trade policy via tariffs. Given this, we wanted to share some thoughts on tariffs and their potential impact on the economy and markets.
Quarterly Client Letter – Q4 2024
Last year was a good year to be an investor. Global stocks rose 17.5% led once again by the U.S – where the S&P 500 rose 25%. Stepping back to a longer-term perspective, 2024 continued the theme of U.S. market exceptionalism.
Initial Reactions to the Election Outcome
Now that the final seat has been decided in the U.S. House of Representatives, we wanted to share some initial thoughts on the implications of this year’s election on our outlook for the economy, financial markets, and financial planning in 2025.
Quarterly Client Letter – Q3 2024
It’s hard to believe that we are entering the final stretch of 2024. Kids are back in school, and leaves are starting to turn. After a bit of volatility to start the quarter, 3Q wound up being an early holiday gift for investors.
What to Expect When You’re Expecting Rate Cuts
After a little over a year of watching how their 525 basis points of interest rate increases has impacted growth and inflation, the Federal Reserve finally began its rate cut cycle yesterday. While the economy, financial markets, and your financial plan are driven by more than changes in interest rate policies, policy changes still have important implications for these key inputs into achieving your goals.